Maybe, Just Maybe

It’s been 75 days since we had over 3 inches of snow way back on December 11 and 391 days since there was a 6 inch snowstorm on January 29th 2022. That’s and incredible snow drought for southern New England. Right now things look interesting as the calendar begins to turn the page into March. A coastal storm which is not on any weather maps at the moment will likely start developing Monday to our south and as it intensifies there could be a swath of snow moving into New England late Monday into Tuesday night. The rain/snow line will likely be in southern Connecticut which a possible significant snow event here in central Connecticut. A possible shovellable and plowable snowfall could be setting up. We’re still 3-4 days out and things could change as the weekend winds down, but maybe, just maybe our first major winter snowstorm may be days away.

Weather Watchers Are A Rare Breed

We are mercurial and unpredictable as the New England Weather. We are cold as a cold bitter winter day to those who disagree with us. We are warm as a spring day to those less fortunate as myself. We are like a storm at times waiting to tear into someone with rage. But often we are like the sun rays after the storm with love, humor, kindness and a sense of adventure.

I’ve been a weather watcher most of my life. I recall happy times watching changing weather conditions, listening intently to the AM Radio for a potential powerful snowstorm and staying up all night watching the first snowflake to illuminate itself passing through the street light outside my bedroom window. Watching the western horizon in the summer as distant thunder seemed to be gathering the dark cumulus nimbus clouds with tones of black and dark gray.

My eye is always to the sky everyday using my sixth sense to formulate a forecast for my own being which usually brings a smile and a sense of satisfaction.

This post is dedicated to Salvatore Fusco Jr. a true weather enthusiast.

Snowfall: 5 Should Be 36+ Inches To Date

Don’t hold your if you’re expecting and measurable snowfall anytime soon. Weather enthusiasts who may have snow rulers in their yard have likely forgotten about them. To date central Connecticut is over 3 feet below normal with only 5 inches officially measured at this location. Any snow storms need to come in a hurry the next 6 weeks to challenge the lowest snowfall total for a winter season of 13 inches. Over 4 and half feet is our average for a season. The next 10-14 days will have much warmer than normal temperatures with below average precipitation.

Record Breaking Warmth, Below Normal Snowfall.

I have been keeping climate and weather data in New Britain for 36 years and have never seen anything like this with departures from normal in temperature and snowfall. December averaged an incredible 10 degrees above normal and February to date 4.5 degrees normal. Snowfall for the season is looking like it may not reach a one foot total amount. To date I have recorded only 5 inches of snow with the bulk of it falling two months ago on December 11th with 3 inches. The average winter seasonal snowfall here is 53 inches. Looking at long range weather models, above normal temperatures with continue through February with not much measurable snowfall. At least our fuels bills will get a reprieve with a savings of 20-25% from last year. Mother nature always seems to have away to even the score. So, March and April could make up for the balmy winter days we all endured.

What’s Going On This Winter?

Connecticut is experiencing an unusually warm winter with not much to show in the snow department. Actually, January averaged 10 degrees above normal in New Britain with only one and half inches of snow. The average for January is 10″. There’s various reasons why we’re having a Virginia like winter without getting too technical is the La Nina phase of a Pacific Ocean jet stream is affecting the continental US. Usually a La Nina has a blocking effect for allowing Polar outbreaks to move southward from Canada in the eastern part of the country. Low pressure systems from the Pacific Ocean ride along La Nina jet stream and hit the west coast with heavy rain and upper elevation snow. These low pressure systems move across the country and move in the Great Lakes region giving a general rain pattern for us. Remember: If a storm system moves to our west we are in the warm sector from the counter clockwise wind circulation from the low pressure. The reason for below normal snow falls.

About Climate Change? Yes, there’s a component to that too. For the last several decades the average temperature has been gradually rising. You probably noticed the hotter summers lately.