Cold to the core. This February could be the coldest ever

With new data coming in daily it appears that this stretch of very cold conditions may last for another two weeks which will bring us to the end of the month and may smash all records as being the coldest February ever. As of today we are averaging some 9 degrees below normal for the month. Very intense arctic outbreaks are plunging directly at us from the polar region instead of descending into the upper Midwestern states and making that left turn towards us where the cold air has a chance to moderate. We may feel the core of the cold by the end of this week when temperatures will be 5-15 below zero in the morning and a high struggling to get to 10 degrees. A deep snowpack will enhance the bite of the cold considerably. But keep in mind, these chilling bubbles of dense air masses will soon retreat north as the sun angle gets higher in the sky. Here’ s a warming thought…. Daylight Savings Time begins four weeks from today!

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Snow storms non-stop ticket to New England

The conveyer belt just keeps rolling along delivering on cue winter storms every three days. We know that there is a life span for these storms and will eventually give out as the sun migrates higher in the sky each day sending a message to the arctic air masses to finally retreat. After yesterday’s twelve inch snow blitz, another Alberta Clipper will travel southeastward from Canada early Thursday and cover our landscape with another one to four inches of snow. And yet another system will pull out the Rockies and take up shop off the east coast by late weekend. Computers models are now starting to agree on where and when this newest storm will blossom into Nor’easter on Sunday. Nor’easter + Arctic air mass = significant snowfall for New England. Winter is surely making up for lost time in a hurry this winter.

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Déjà vu all over again

This Monday is officially Groundhogs Day and again, and again, and again The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for northern Connecticut 3 times in the last week. It’s quite ironic that this triple play of warnings will fall on Bill Murrays’ iconic movie title. Yes, we will be handed another extended period of steady to heavy snow, biting winds with drifting and blowing of the snow for some 30 hours. Snow will break out during the Super Bowl and continue right through Monday. The brutally cold temperatures you felt today will be around on Monday too. Total snow accumulation 14″

Deja vu all over again.

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Super Bowl parties could be over after halftime

Snowmageddon of 2015 marches on… After a quiet first half this winter, except for a number of cold days in January, , the snow factory has officially opened for business. Last Saturdays half foot, Monday and Tuesdays blizzard and now the string continues with number three on its way that may cut short some Super Bowl parties. Another massive storms in terms of real estate it will cover moves eastward from the southwest and Gulf of Mexico entering Connecticut by early Sunday evening. The good news it may give some a day off from work on Monday to recover from Big Game festivities. Storm #3 will exit late Monday drawing some of the coldest air of the winter into the area.  Storm #4 will not be far behind late next week.  And not to be the bearer of bad news the Groundhog will not see his shadow Monday which spells six more weeks of winter. Sorry.

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The art of predicting a winter storm

The good old days when the weatherman would rely on the tools of a thermometer, barometer, anemometer to measure wind speed and direction, radar and satellites images, and then draw out lines of equal barometric pressure on a map to show the location of high and low pressure areas to predict a storms path. Today meteorologists have a new technology from their well equipped arsenal and that would be two computer models. One is the North American Model (NAM) and the European Model. Meteorologists rely more on the European Model because of recent successes for being reliable in predictioning large winter storms and their precise tracks and precipation accuracy. Unfortunately many meteorologists ignored NAM and went solely with the more popular European model for The Blizzard 2015 which faired inaccurate by a 100 mile wobble to the east. The heavy snow bands missed New York City but set up over eastern Long Island and eastern New England and weathermen paid a hefty price from the media outlets. Even The National Weather Service issued a subtle apology. The science of weather forecasting still can be subject to error especially if we’re on the edge of heavy weather. Maybe next time to get the forecast right is to just  look out the window!

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