The art of predicting a winter storm

The good old days when the weatherman would rely on the tools of a thermometer, barometer, anemometer to measure wind speed and direction, radar and satellites images, and then draw out lines of equal barometric pressure on a map to show the location of high and low pressure areas to predict a storms path. Today meteorologists have a new technology from their well equipped arsenal and that would be two computer models. One is the North American Model (NAM) and the European Model. Meteorologists rely more on the European Model because of recent successes for being reliable in predictioning large winter storms and their precise tracks and precipation accuracy. Unfortunately many meteorologists ignored NAM and went solely with the more popular European model for The Blizzard 2015 which faired inaccurate by a 100 mile wobble to the east. The heavy snow bands missed New York City but set up over eastern Long Island and eastern New England and weathermen paid a hefty price from the media outlets. Even The National Weather Service issued a subtle apology. The science of weather forecasting still can be subject to error especially if we’re on the edge of heavy weather. Maybe next time to get the forecast right is to just ¬†look out the window!

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